Goat Meat Market
BOOMING

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By Julie Stepanek Shiflett, Ph.D.
 for the American Boer Goat Association
Reprinted from The BOER Goat pages 14-16 November/December 2007 issue

The commercial meat market in the United States is booming. Over the last two decades, the industry has changed from a net exporter to a net importer, goat weights have increased with changes in breeding, and goat—a staple of ethnic cuisine — is increasingly featured in fine-dining establishments. The U.S. meat goat industry is poised for continued profitable investment in inventory and market development.

Since 1995, the number of goats slaughtered has increased an average 6 percent per year.¹ In 2006, 581,743 head of goat were slaughtered, up 51 percent in ten years. At an estimated 40 pounds of meat per goat, domestic production totaled 23.3 million pounds in 2006 (Figure 1).² Over the same period, 24.4 mill. pounds of goat meat were imported. Thus, an estimated 47.7 mill. pounds of goat were consumed in 2006.

In the last 15 years, goat imports increased an average 16 percent annually. In 2006, 11,000 tons of goat, valued at nearly $41 million, was imported.³ In the five years, 2002 to 2006, an average of 94 percent of imported goat meat came from Australia, while the other six percent came from New Zealand.⁴ The fact that it is profitable for U.S. importers to ship goat meat from the other side of the world is a testament of the strength of the goat market in the United States.

Figure 1. Estimated Domestic Production
and Imported Goat Meat
Source: USDA/AMS, Dept. of Commerce, Shiflett

The Commercial Meat Market

While a lot of goats sell direct from the farm to individuals, butcher shops, or restaurants, it is hypothesized that most goats sell through auctions. Producers take goats to auctions where buyers will fill orders for wholesalers, retailers and individuals. The two largest goat auctions in this country are held in San Angelo, Texas and New Holland, Pennsylvania.

Packer buyers in Texas may haul a load of goats to Florida or to the Northeast for slaughter in small packing plants for small grocers or for individuals. Often one buyer will fill a trailer with an odd assortment of little kids, big kids, thin nannies, or fat nannies to fill customers’ unique orders. It is profitable to haul goats 35 hours across the United States because many goat consumers set a premium on fresh and/or live goat. According to some customs, a ceremonious slaughter before goat is served as equally as important as the meat.

While the San Angelo market caters to ethnic groups from Iranians, Turkish, Indian to Hispanic, the New Holland market primarily caters to the myriad of non-Hispanic ethnic groups on the East coast. Goats from San Angelo are transported all over the country, but mostly to the Northeast.

Auctions in both New Holland and San Angelo sell goats of all classes, from 20-pound kids to 250-pounds bucks and nannies. Although seasonal demand is present, Taylor Cox, USDA Market News Reporter in New Holland, remarked, “There is a demand for everything!”⁵ There are a handful of buyers in each market week-to-week with orders often for over 1,000 head. With 2,000 head to 8,000 head of goats selling each week, San Angelo offers buyers a sizeable selection of goats.

The success of the commercial market depends largely upon traits generated from the pure breed Boer goat industry. Although a variety of breeds sell at auction, Boer goats and Boer Crosses are particularly popular because they typically grade Selection 1, which means they have a high ratio of meat to bone. Boer goats are often crossbred with other meat goats to specifically enhance carcass quality by adding some muscling. Selection 1 goats are thickly muscled throughout the body, with a bulging outside leg, a rounded loin, and a thick outside shoulder.⁶

Reproductive performance is also important to the meat goat industry. The profitability of a meat goat enterprise will improve if the costs are kept low and nannies are productive and kids survive.⁷ Benny Cox, Sheep and Goat Sales Manager at Producers Livestock Auction Co. in San Angelo, commented, “When Boer goats were introduced in Texas there was a lot of skepticism, but people soon understood that the Boers were beneficial to the meat market because they added weight to kids and their survivability was satisfactory.”⁸

Meat Prices Remain Strong

Meat goat prices have been rising over the past five years at auctions in New Holland and San Angelo. In San Angelo, prices for Selection 1 kids, ranging from 20 pounds to 100 pounds were averaging around $100 per hundredweight (cwt.) in early 2002 (Figure 2). Five years later in early 2007, kids were worth around $125/cwt.

Figure 2. Buck and Kid Prices,
San Antonio, Texas, Selection 1
Source: USDA/AMS, Shiflett

In San Angelo, prices for Selection 1 bucks ranging from 70 pounds to 250 pounds have trended upward but haven’t seen the price increases recorded for Selection 1 kids. While buck prices have generally increased since early 2002, the increase was prompted by higher prices for 100-pound to 150- pound bucks. Prices for the lighter bucks, between 70 pounds and 100 pounds, and the heavier bucks, weighing from 150 pounds to 250 pounds, have been volatile, but on average, remained steady.

In New Holland, kids were averaging $88.54/head during the second quarter of 2007, 42 percent higher than the same period five years ago (Figure 3). Bucks were selling for $145.36/head in the second quarter of 2007, 36 percent higher than the same period five years ago.

Figure 3. Buck and Kid Prices,
New Holland, PA, Selection 1
Source: USDA/AMS, Shiflett

Unfortunately, it is difficult to compare prices at the two auctions. Goats in San Angelo are sold per hundredweight and in New Holland they are sold by the head on estimated weights.

Within a year, goat prices often fall into repeated seasonal high-priced and low-priced months depending upon volumes of goats sold and ethnic holidays. March and April are often the highest-priced months. Prices weaken by June as many goats enter the market. The volume of goats declines as fall approaches, which puts upward pressure on prices. At the beginning of year, prices are once again high and strengthening.

The Importance of Demand

The demand for goat isn’t simply how much goat people eat, it is the combination of how much goat people eat and the prices at which consumers buy goat. If more goat was consumed and prices were falling, it wouldn’t do the industry any good. Returns to producers would fall, as would investments.

The industry would most likely contract, rather than grow. Increasing prices as the industry expands is key because it means profits from producers to goat buyers, to wholesalers, to retailers can increase. If goat meat demand is strong and increasing, it is more likely that producers will invest in expanding their herds and retailers will increase advertisements for goat meat.

There are a few indicators that demand for goat meat is increasing: ethnic populations that regularly eat goat are growing, incomes of ethnic populations are increasing, and the taste and preference for goat is on the rise.

As the ethnic population grows in this country, so can the demand for goat meat because many ethnic groups and faith- based groups eat goat on a regular basis. “About one in three U.S. residents is a minority,” said Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon.⁹ As the populations of these groups grow, they will put an upward pressure on prices of the existing goat supplies until supply can expand to meet their needs. Hispanics remained the largest minority group in 2006, with 44.3 million persons in July 2006, or nearly 15 percent of the total population. With a 3.4 percent increase between 2005 and 2006, Hispanic was the fastest-growing minority group. By 2050, the Hispanic-origin population is estimated to reach 25 percent of the U.S. population, or about 96.5 mill, persons.¹⁰ If just the Hispanic-origin population is considered, the annual per capita consumption of goat is about 1 pound per year. This is conservative estimate: It doesn’t include slaughter in non- USDA inspected plants, or on farm slaughter, and it assumes an average 40-lb. goat carcass. If the Hispanic population grows to 96.5 mill. persons by 2050, then goat consumption in this country could reach 96.5 mill. pounds-or more than double the amount consumed today. The U.S. goat industry can meet this challenge.

Rising incomes of the U.S. population, in general, and the ethnic groups, in particular, also bodes well for increased goat demand. Higher income levels, in general, can help goat meat demand. Although Hispanics’ income is lower than that of the average American, incomes of the Pakistanis and Indians, for example, are above average.

Another indicator that goat meat demand is likely to continue increasing is that goat meat is lean and may appeal to health-conscious consumers. By advertising the merits of goat meat, more consumers may be willing to try goat that perhaps have never had it before.

Catering to consumers’ desire for ready-to-eat meals could also help expand goat demand. Consumers today often do not want to spend a lot of time in the kitchen preparing meals. Adding value to goat meat by offering pre-cut pieces of goat for stew at local groceries or frozen meals of roast goat could benefit the industry by raising demand.

Goat supplies have been increasing in the United States to meet the growing demand. Between July 2006 and July 2007, the U.S. goat inventory increased 4 percent to 3.6 mill. head.¹¹ During the same period, the number of goats slaughtered increased nearly three percent.¹² Levi Geyer, USDA Market News Reporter in New Holland, reported that he has seen 100 head to 500 head more goats in the market each week this year compared to last year. Rebecca Sauder, a Market News Reporter in San Angelo, reported she’s observed a “continued upswing for a long time.”¹³

As producers invest in goats and the supply of meat goats increases, prices can only rise if the increase in supply is accompanied by increases in demand.

Conclusion

There is great potential for further expansion and development of the U.S. goat industry. It is likely that demand has been increasing and will continue to strengthen due of the trend of simultaneous growing production and strengthening prices. Only through increased demand—propelled by increased ethnic populations, increased incomes of these groups, and increased preference for goat meat — can the industry expand its meat goat population profitably.

 

 

References

Day, Jennifer Cheeseman. Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050.¹ This is federally inspected goat slaughter and doesn’t include goats slaughtered in non-USDA inspected plants, in backyards, or on farms.

² USDA doesn’t keep production data so it is estimated from USDA data of number of head slaughtered.

³ USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. U.S. Trade Imports.  Accessed at www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade/USTImHS1O.asp, various years.

⁴ Ibid.

⁵Telephone conversation with Taylor Cox, USDA Market News Reported, New Holland, PA, 7/11/07.

⁶ Shankle, Bruce E. II. Meat Goat Grades. North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Accessed on 9/12/07.

⁷Machen, Rick. Experiencing Long-Term Success as a Meat Goat Producer. Accessed at www.boergoats.com/clean/articleads.php?art=113 on 9/11/07.

⁸Telephone conservation held 8/30/07

⁹U.S. Census, U.S. Census Bureau News, 5/17/07

¹⁰Day, Jennifer Cheeseman. Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050. US. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, p.25-1130, U.S. Govemment Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 1996: 13

¹¹USDA, NASS. Sheep and Goats. July 2007.

¹²USDA, Agricultural Market Service, Federally inspected goat slaughter, various years

¹³Telephone conservation with Rebecca Sauder, USDA Market News Reporter, San Angelo, TX, 7/12/07

 

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